Tropics latest: Tropical Storm Watch for SWFL coastline; Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 forms
As of the 2 p.m. Friday update from the National Hurricane Center, Fred is a tropical depression with 35 mph max sustained winds, moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. It is set to closely track along Cuba’s northern coastline over the next 12 hours. Throughout the next 24 – 48 Fred is going to continue to try to restrengthen and move towards the Florida Straits. The warm ocean waters could act as fuel to help restrengthen the system into a tropical storm.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for all of the coastal zones within our viewing area.
A flood watch was issued for Collier, Hendry, Glades counties in Southwest Florida until Sunday at 8:00 p.m.
Southwest Florida remains in the forecast cone for Fred.
There is a chance for strengthening as it moves over the abnormally warm waters of the Florida Straits between Cuba and Florida.
The high elevations of the Dominican Republic and Haiti weakened the storm significantly as it passed over Hispaniola. We could see a similar weakening of the storm if it interacts heavily with Cuba. Additional obstacles include dry air and even some wind shear.
Our latest model guidance still keeps Fred off the Southwest Florida coastline. The current track has this system making landfall near Panama City Sunday night into early Monday morning.
We are expecting the system to bring SWFL strong bands of heavy rain and strong winds Saturday PM into Sunday. Due to the potentially heavy rainfall we could also see localized flooding along with an isolated tornado.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven has formed in the Atlantic. The latest forecast cone shows it moving westward over the next several days. This system will move towards the Caribbean taking a very similar track to Fred. It is very close to developing a closed center of circulation. An increase in storms associated with the system along with a closed center of circulation would upgrade the system to a tropical depression. It could even be at tropical storm strength by tomorrow. The Caribbean and Leeward Islands could face more heavy rain and flooding.
Tropical storm conditions are expected to impact the Leeward Islands this weekend as it moves westward. The Bahamas and Southeast U.S. will need to watch this next week.
